There’s a fascinating finale to the Australian conference in Super Rugby in the pipeline. With some crunch games set to decide who gets that vital home play-off game the run in is set up nicely for a grand stand finish.

As things stand heading into Round 13 of the competition the Brumbies have an eight point lead on the log, but when you dig a bit deeper into the remaining fixtures it’s clear that their lead at the top is a bit more precarious than it may seem at face value.

The Brumbies are on 39 log points with the Reds (31) and Waratahs (27) trailing by quite some margin. If you get in quickly this morning on Voltbet.com before the round starts the quoted prices are Brumbies @1.60, Reds @2.40 and Waratahs @17.00

Let’s the Waratahs out the way first up as it’s quite obvious why they are such rank outsiders to top the conference and sitting at such a long price. They are just starting a two match tour of South Africa which makes it unlikely that they’ll be able to close the gap. The Waratahs do still play the Brumbies (h) and the Reds (a) in the last two weeks so will have a big say the shakedown of the conference. But it’s the battle between the Brumbies and the Reds to top the conference that’s more interesting.

The Brumbies have been so good this season that it’s time we stop saying it’s surprising how well they’ve performed. I’ve certainly been one of the so-called ‘experts’ that has been caught out time and time again by Jake White’s team. What they lack in star quality they more than make up for in organisation, committment on defence and hunger to win. They are rightfully favcourites to top the group, but I must add a note of caution here. If you look at the Brumbies’ remaining fixtures you’ll see they’ve still got six games to play (the Reds and ‘Tahs still have a bye to come) and four of those games are away from home. They’ve also lost first choice flyhalf Christian Lealiifano who was in great form and will be tough to replace.

In contrast, the Reds have a big gap to close on the Brumbies, but they get their talisman flyhalf Quade Cooper back this weekend and seem to be hitting form just in time after injuries looked to have all but destroyed their hopes this season. The Reds aren’t the defending champions for nothing and we’ve seen in the last two weeks that they seem to have turned the corner. The good news for Ewen McKenzie’s men is that they’ve still got three home games to come and what looks like a must-win game against the Brumbies next week. They’ve also still got a bye left which is four guaranteed points while the Brumbies will have to go out and earn those points the hard way!

It’s a similar situation to the South African conference where the Bulls and Stormers still have to play each other and the Brumbies v Reds game next week looks to be a battle of epic proportions. If the Brumbies manage to win that one it will take a spectacular collapse after the international break for them not to top the conference. If you fancy them for that game now might not be a bad time to get down a bet on them. If you think the Brumbies might battle this weekend against the Hurricanes and lose to the Reds next week then you’ll see it’s not impossible for that eight point lead to be caught up in no time and then you have to fancy the Reds with the more favourable run-in fixtures.

REMAINING FIXTURES 

Brumbies:
Hurricanes (a), Reds (h), Rebels (a), Force (a), Waratahs (a), Blues (h)

Reds:
Lions (h), Brumbies (a), Bye, Rebels (a), Highlanders (h), Waratahs (h)

Waratahs:
Stormers (a), Cheetahs (a), Hurricanes (h), Bye, Brumbies (h), Reds (a)

Australian Conference LOG
Brumbies 39
Reds 31
Waratahs 27

Australian Conference Betting
Brumbies @1.60
Reds @2.40
Waratahs @17.00

Stats  
Head to Head in Wellington
Round 11, 2009 – Hurricanes 56 Brumbies 7
Round 4, 2007 – Hurricanes 11 Brumbies 10
Round 10, 2005 – Hurricanes 49 Brumbies 37

Form
Hurricanes
Round 12 – Highlanders 20 Hurricanes 26
Round 11 – Hurricanes 35 Blues 19
Round 10 – Chiefs 33 Hurricanes 14

Brumbies
Round 12 – BYE
Round 11 – Brumbies 23 Waratahs 6
Round 10 – Lions 20 Brumbies 34

Prediction
The Hurricanes have given Beauden Barrett a rest on the bench with Tusi Pisi given the Number 10 jersey. The Brumbies are also without their regular flyhalf, Christian Lealiifano and Zack Holmes gets a start at pivot. The Hurricanes have been excellent in attack this season but their defense is a worry. The loss of Lealiifano is a major blow to the Brumbies cause but they should be fired up for this game after the rest last weekend. The Brumbies have secured a losing bonus point in each of their 4 defeats this season and have not been beaten by more than 7 points. I really fancy the Brumbies on the handicap this weekend and suggest a large bet on the Brumbies +5.5. The Brumbies fight till the end and they should keep it close against the Canes and could even win the match.

Both these teams have two remaining matches, for Deccan it’s been a pretty awful campaign which has so far delivered just two wins but the Rajatshan Royals still entertain hopes of making the play offs. To stand a chance, the Royals will have to win here and also come out on top in their final match of the round robin stage at home to Mumbai. That would take the Royals to 18 points with a better net run rate than Mumbai but at the time of writing there are other teams in the mix as well and the Royals could still need results elsewhere to go in their favour. Rajasthan have won three of their last four outings, including a comfortable 45 run win at home to Pune Warriors in their most recent engagement to stay in the hunt.

Hyderabad is one of three home venues the Chargers have used this season and the two earlier games played here have seen Kings XI post, and then defend, a total of 170/5 whilst Delhi chased down the Chargers 187/4 with remarkable ease thanks to a David Warner century. The evidence therefore suggests a decent batting track awaits so “in play” backers can look out for Rahane and Dravid of the Royals and Dhawan and White of the Chargers, all of whom feature in the top ten tournament run scorers table for IPL 2012. Late arrival Shane Watson of the Royals has 197 runs in five innings and is another likely dangerman on this surface. With the ball, look out for Royals off spinner Chandilla who took a hat-trick in their recent win over Pune Warriors.

There will be no complaints entertainment wise if we see a repeat of the earlier meeting this season which was staged in Jaipur.  Deccan won the toss and chose to bat and their total of 196/2 looked plenty at the time. However, the Royals chased it down with two balls remaining and five wickets still intact. The Royals have now won seven of eight meetings with the Chargers including an eight wicket win in Hyderabad in the one meeting between the teams in IPL 2011.

In the betting, the Royals are firm favourites, chalked up at 8/15 to win the game whilst the Chargers can be backed at 15/10. Remember there are many more markets available before we go “in play”.

Conclusion:
The Royals have plenty going for them here but the focus for a bet is a speculative play in the mode of dismissal market for the first Deccan Chargers wicket. The Royals opened the bowling with the off spin of Chandilla last time out and he removed all four of Pune Warriors top order and returned figures of 4/13 from his four overs. That was in Jaipur which is usually a decent batting track, similar to what we have seen here and as two of Chandilla’s victim’s were stumpings, the 25/1 for the first Chargers wicket to fall that way is a speculative pick but with some logic behind it.

Prediction: Deccan Chargers first wicket mode of dismissal, stumped, 25/1.

Stats
Head to Head in New Zealand
Round 7, 2009 – Highlanders 36 Bulls 12
Round 8, 2007 – Highlanders 13 Bulls 22
Round 3, 2005 – Highlanders 23 Bulls 0

Form
Highlanders
Round 12 – Highlanders 20 Hurricanes 26
Round 11 – Sharks 28 Highlanders 16
Round 10 – Cheetahs 33 Highlanders 36

Bulls
Round 12 – Waratahs 24 Bulls27
Round 11 – Rebels 35 Bulls 41
Round 10 – BYE

Prediction
Morne Steyn plays his 100^th Super Rugby match as is set to be the first player to achieve this milestone playing in pink! The Highlanders are set to name an unchanged side from last weekend while the Bulls have been boosted by the returning Springbok trio of Dean Greyling, Dewald Potgieter and Wynand Olivier. This is the Bulls 3^rd match on tour and it has been a tough “spot” for the South African sides in recent times. The Highlanders are not in the best form and this is a must win for them against a side whom they have a good record against. The Bulls will benefit by the changes to their starting XV and the boot of Morne Steyn should be the difference in this fixture. I will take a small stab at the 1^st Scoring Play being a Bulls penalty at 9/5 with my main bet being a Bulls win at 4/5. I think the Bulls have the momentum, the better team and the better flyhalf who will be aiming to kick his side to victory in his 100^th Super Rugby Cap. Go Bulle!

Stats  
Head to Head in Christchurch
Round 17, 2011 – Crusaders 23 Blues 16
Round 4, 2010 – Crusaders 33 Blues 20
Round 11, 2008 – Crusaders 26 Blues 22

Form
Crusaders
Round 12 – Rebels 28 Crusaders 19
Round 11 – Crusaders 15 Reds 11
Round 10 – Waratahs 33 Crusaders 37

Blues
Round 12 – Blues 25 Lions 3
Round 11 – Hurricanes 35 Blues 19
Round 10 – Blues 11 Reds 23

Prediction
The Crusaders are without Kieran Read, Tom Taylor and Luke Whitelock so Richie McCaw will go back to 8^th man with Matt Todd at openside flank. Dan Carter goes back to flyhalf in Taylors absence. The Blues are without injured Charlie Faumuina from last week and have named a half back pairing of Anscombe and Weepu with Hobbs at 12. This is the first of three consecutive home games for the Crusaders who will be keen to get that result from last week out of their system. The Blues have been behind in 9 of their 10 matches at half time this season and I feel the Crusaders will target a fast start in this clash. The half time handicap of Crusaders -5.5 looks a very good bet! The Blues have been very poor this season and I expect an onslaught from the Crusaders. The Crusaders should dominate the scrums and the line-outs and it could be a long day at the office for Pat Lams men. Saders on the half time handicap of -5.5 is my pick!

Stats  
Head to Head in Brisbane
Round 10, 2009 – Reds 20 Lions 31
Round 5, 2007 – Reds 20 Lions 26
Round 10, 2005 – Reds 21 Lions 15

Form
Reds
Round 12 – Reds 42 Chiefs 27
Round 11 – Crusaders 15 Reds 11
Round 10 – Blues 11 Reds 23

Lions      
Round 12 – Blues 25 Lions 3
Round 11 – Chiefs 34 Lions 21
Round 10 – Lions 20 Brumbies 34

Prediction
The big team news is the return of Quade Cooper to the Reds starting XV. The inspirational flyhalf makes his first appearance since damaging his knee and it will be a big boost to the Reds to have him linking up with Will Genia again. The Lions have stuck with the same starting side that lost out last weekend. I fancy the Reds to hit the ground running and really like the half time handicap of Reds -9.5 and here is my reasoning: The Reds have scored 90% of their tries in the opening 60 minutes and the Lions have scored 40% of their tries in the last 20 minutes. The Lions have also been behind in every single away match this season by 7 points or more. The return of Quade Cooper combined with the fact that this is the Lions 3^rd game on tour and the stats mentioned above make the Reds -9.5 at half time the bet of the weekend in Super Rugby. I expect the Reds to put on a show in the opening half and wrap up the try scoring bonus point before half time! Get on the Reds half time handicap as it is a goodie!

Stats  
Head to Head in Bloemfontein
Round 16, 2011 – Cheetahs 18 Sharks 23
Round 9, 2009 – Cheetahs 31 Sharks 6
Round 7, 2007 – Cheetahs 14 Sharks 30

Form
Cheetahs
Round 12 – Stormers 16 Cheetahs 14
Round 11 – Cheetahs 17 Force 13
Round 10 – Cheetahs 33 Highlanders 36

Sharks
Round 12 – Sharks 53 Force 11
Round 11 – Sharks 28 Highlanders 16
Round 10 – BYE

Prediction
The Cheetahs have made one change from last weeks starting XV with Riaan Smit replacing Sias Ebersohn at flyhalf. The Sharks have made two changes with Riaan Viljoen replacing the injured Louis Ludik and Willem Alberts coming in for Pieter-Steph du Toit. The Sharks have won 2 of the 3 Super Rugby clashes in Bloemfontein and are deserved favourites for this match. The Sharks are playing better rugby of late and have looked more organised in their last two fixtures. The Cheetahs suffered a major blow to their season with the injury to Johann Goosen in round 10 but they do keep things tight and have picked up 6 losing bonus points thus far this season. I think the Sharks will have too much for the Cheetahs and will be taking a medium punt on the Sharks -2.5 handicap. The Sharks/Sharks in the half-time/full-time market is trading at 6/5 and also looks a good bet! Go Sharks!

Stats  
Head to Head in Cape Town
Semi Final, 2010 – Stormers 25 Waratahs 6
Round 2, 2010 – Stormers 27 Waratahs 6
Round 13, 2008 – Stormers 13 Waratahs 13

Form
Stormers
Round 12 – Stormers 16 Cheetahs 14
Round 11 – BYE
Round 10 – Force 3 Stormers 17

Waratahs
Round 12 – Waratahs 24 Bulls27
Round 11 – Brumbies 23 Waratahs 6
Round 10 – Waratahs 33 Crusaders 37

Prediction
Team news sees Tian Liebenberg start in place of Deon Fourie and Canadian loosie Jebb Sinclair getting his first start in the number 8 jersey. The Waratahs welcome back Bernard Foley to the fullback position while Brendan McKibbin starts at scrumhalf at the expense of Sarel Pretorius. The Stormers should win this clash but they are not renowned for their try scoring ability and I think this will be a tight match. The Waratahs have lost 5 of their matches this season by a margin of 4 points or less and the Stormers have won their last two home matches by less than 3 points! Matches between the sides are usually low scoring with an average amount of 30 points scored in their last three head to heads in Cape Town. All of these stats point to the Waratahs on the handicap of +8.5. I believe the Stormers will win this match but their lack of try scoring ability makes the Tahs +8.5 a cracker of a bet this weekend.

Stats  
Head to Head
12 Apr 2005 – Bayern Munich 3 Chelsea 2
6 Apr 2005 – Chelsea 4 Bayern Munich 2

Bayern Munich
12 May 2012 – Dortmund 5 Bayern Munich 2
5 May 2012 – FC Cologne 1 Bayern Munich 4
28 Apr 2012 – Bayern Munich 2 Stuttgart 0

Chelsea
13 May 2012 – Chelsea 2 Blackburn 1
8 May 2012 – Liverpool 4 Chelsea 1
5 May 2012 – Chelsea 2 Liverpool 1

Prediction
Bayern Munich have home ground advantage which is massive for a Champions League Final! Bayern have also won this trophy 4 times while Chelsea are yet to win Europe’s elite competition. Bayern should field an attacking line-up with a major threat coming from Thomas Muller, Mario Gomez, Arjen Robben and Frank Ribery. Bastian Schweinsteiger is the midfield general and he has been superb thus far this season. Chelsea will be severely hampered by their suspensions but David Luiz and Gary Cahill should pass late fitness tests. Didier Drogba is a key man and showed his value in Finals with the winning goal in the FA Cup Final a few weeks ago. A lot will depend on Juan Mata who will need to spark the attack for Chelsea. Both sides are without key defenders and although this is a Final, I expect goals and will have a punt on the Over 2.5 goals at 1/1. I cannot see Chelsea’s defence, without Captain John Terry, keeping out the Bayern attack and Chelsea do have the ability to score the odd goal, as was evident in their Semi Final with Barcelona at Stamford Bridge! I also fancy Bayern Munich to win the match in 90 minutes and will have a monster bet on Bayern at 17/20. The match will be played in Bayern’s Stadium, they have more pedigree and a far superior attack than their opponents. Bayern Munich for the win!

Stats  
Head to Head
Round 5, 2012 – Rebels 30 Force 29
Round 11, 2011 – Rebels 24 Force 27
Round 7, 2011 – Force 25 Rebels 26

Form
Force
Round 12 – Sharks 53 Force 11
Round 11 – Cheetahs 17 Force 13
Round 10 – Force 3 Stormers 17

Rebels
Round 12 – Rebels 28 Crusaders 19
Round 11 – Rebels 35 Bulls 41
Round 10 – BYE

Prediction
Neither side was available at the time of writing but no major injuries have been reported this week. The Rebels are coming off the back of two very impressive matches. The Rebels showed their attacking ability against the Bulls in Round 11 and followed that up with a splendid win against the Crusaders last week. Kurtley Beale has been excellent recently along with lock Hugh Pyle and Nick Phipps who took both tries well last weekend. The Force are coming off a miserable South African tour and don’t have enough flair in their ranks. Too much is expected from David Pocock who is lacking the support from the men around him. The form is with the Rebels who will be oozing with confidence after last week’s.  I make the Rebels to win the match one of the better bets this weekend and expect Beale and Company to run riot in Perth on Sunday! Go on you Rebels!